poll-miss · 970 statewide races · 1998–2022
Six models of polling error, named for what they look like in the sky. Each is scored out-of-cycle — trained only on elections that had already happened. The question is never who wins. It is which races the polls are about to get wrong, and whether any model saw it coming.
What “flagged in advance” means
A race is flagged when the selected model put it in its top risk quartile before any votes were counted, using only cycles that had already happened. It does not mean the same thing for every model, and the difference matters:
Only Wall Cloud flags a race as an erroneous call — the polls naming the loser. The others flag a race as likely to be numerically wrong, which in a landslide changes nothing. That distinction is why Squall Line can flag hundreds of races and catch almost no upsets.