Atlas Ahead

Long Odds

How do people win elections they were expected to lose? This is the first part of a wider look at how candidates get elected. It starts with 13 candidates who beat the odds, in primaries and in general elections, and 13 serious long shots who ran and lost. For each one: who was who, who was favored, what happened, and what the post-mortems say made the difference, quoted and linked. The trends are then turned into a point system and tested against the losers.

Across these cases, the trends most likely to show up among the winners rather than the losers were being outspent, favorite seen as absent, a late event or luck. Later parts will cover candidates who win because the seat always votes one way, and races that are simply close.

Everything said about a candidate here is what a cited source reported. Descriptions of campaigns are not findings about anyone's character, and allegations are described as allegations.

What the winners had that the losers did not

Each trend is scored by how much more often it appears among the long shots who won than among the long shots who ran and lost. Points are the log of that odds ratio, rounded and capped at three either way. Adding up a candidate's points gives their Horsefly score. Each case card also shows the score it gets when the points are worked out without that case, which is the fairer test.

TrendUpset winnersLong shots who lostPoints
Outspent, and won anywayThe long shot's campaign spent less than the favorite's (FEC candidate summaries, or the spending cited in the case).8 of 100 of 7+3
Favorite seen as absentThe favorite was described as absent from the district, out of touch, skipping forums or debates, or running a low-energy campaign.5 of 131 of 13+2
A late event or luckSomething outside the campaign's control arrived late, or insiders credit luck.5 of 131 of 13+2
The mood of the yearA national or local anti-establishment or partisan wave is credited.6 of 132 of 13+1
Favorite weakenedThe favorite was hurt by a scandal, a gaffe, an unpopular record or association, or a split in their own party.9 of 136 of 13+1
Ground gameDoor-knocking, canvassing, volunteers or a notable in-person field effort.4 of 132 of 13+1
Rallies and attentionRallies, tours, big crowds, viral moments or a large following in the media.4 of 132 of 13+1
New or unusual votersTurnout from voters who do not usually vote in that contest (young voters, voters of color, crossover voters) is credited.4 of 132 of 13+1
BiographyA personal story, local roots or a non-politician profile at the center of the campaign.6 of 134 of 13+1
Crossover appealWon or courted voters from the other party or independents; ticket-splitting.3 of 132 of 130
One sharp contrastA defining issue or contrast message: immigration, taxes, change versus establishment, abortion or democracy.11 of 1310 of 130
Polls favored the other sidePolling, forecasts or the project's own poll average showed the favorite ahead, or there was little polling.4 of 133 of 130
Organized backingAn organized movement, group or endorsement network behind the long shot.7 of 136 of 130
Attacked by the favoriteThe favorite or allies ran negative advertising or attacks against the long shot.5 of 136 of 130

The strongest single pattern is money, and it runs the opposite way to the usual story: 8 of 10 upset winners whose spending is known were outspent, and none of the 7 long shots who lost were. That holds across two different kinds of comparison case: record fundraisers where money poured in whether or not the race was winnable (Harrison, McGrath, O'Rourke, Barnes), and genuine underdogs who never raised comparable money at all (El-Sayed, Canova). Outspending tracks with losing either way. It is a pattern across these cases, not proof that spending less helps.

How much to trust the point system

13
upset winners
13
long shots who lost, coded the same way
0.68
how well Horsefly separates them when each case is scored with weights built without it (0.5 is a coin flip)
0.89
the same measure in-sample, which flatters it

Scored honestly, out of sample, the point system separates winners from losers only a little better than chance. The in-sample figure is much higher because 26 cases are still easy to fit.

There is also a coverage problem, and it is measurable. The upset winners have 6.2 trends on record on average against 3.6 for the long shots who lost, from a similar number of sources per case (1.6 and 1.7). A surprise win gets written up in detail, and a predictable loss does not. Some of what looks like a winning formula is just the difference in how much was written. A trend marked absent means no source we read mentioned it, not that it did not happen.

Our poll model against the post-mortems

For general elections the project has its own odds. Hypercane scores the chance that the final polls named the wrong winner. Of the 5 upset winners in its panel it flagged 2. The 3 it missed were Doug Jones (AL 2017), Larry Hogan (MD 2014), Susan Collins (ME 2020), and in 3 of them the post-mortems put a damaged favorite at the centre of the story. That is exactly what a poll model cannot see coming until voters act on it.

Long shotResultFinal poll averageHypercane: chance the polls named the wrong winnerFlagHorsefly, scored out of sample
Beto O'Rourke TX 2018lostR +5.17%not flagged+5
Stacey Abrams GA 2018lostR +1.623%not flagged+3
Andrew Gillum FL 2018lostD +2.920%not flagged+2
Jaime Harrison SC 2020lostR +1.814%not flagged+3
Amy McGrath KY 2020lostR +8.83%not flagged+2
Mandela Barnes WI 2022lostR +3.614%not flagged+3
Dan Osborn NE 2024lostnot in the panel——+6
Larry Hogan MD 2014wonD +2.86%not flagged+7
Ron Johnson WI 2016wonD +2.613%flagged+5
Doug Jones AL 2017wonR +2.87%not flagged+4
Susan Collins ME 2020wonD +3.812%not flagged+4
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-3 2022wonnot in the panel——+1
Katie Hobbs AZ 2022wonR +3.117%flagged+1

Primary upsets

Challengers who beat a sitting member of Congress in a primary. Open any trend to see the quote and the source behind it.

Dave Brat

VA-7 Republican primary · 2014 · vs Eric Cantor

Won+7Horseflyout of sample +6

Eric Cantor was the House Majority Leader and widely expected to become Speaker. Dave Brat, an economics professor at Randolph-Macon College, challenged him from the right in the Republican primary, largely over immigration.

The odds“Polling, what little there was of it, showed Cantor way ahead” — TIME

Result“Brat defeated Cantor, 55.5% to 44.5%” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2014 cycle (FEC): Eric Cantor $7.7M · Dave Brat $1.4M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Favorite weakened +1
“he was booed at a May meeting of Republican activists in his district”TIME
Favorite seen as absent +2
“His constituent services suck. He was never in the district.”TIME
One sharp contrast 0
“the most symbolic issue that captures the difference between myself and Eric Cantor in this race”TIME
Organized backing 0
“One national pundit was credited for helping Brat amplify his attacks like no other: conservative radio host Laura Ingraham.”PolitiFact
Polls favored the other side 0
“Polling, what little there was of it, showed Cantor way ahead”TIME
The mood of the year +1
“The defeat of the Virginia Republican was a wake-up call for establishment R”TIME
Attacked by the favorite 0
“He spent $1 million in the weeks leading up to the primary on television ads calling Brat a”TIME
Outspent, and won anyway +3
“All told, Cantor outspent Brat more than 40 to 1 and still lost by 10 percentage points.”PolitiFact

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

NY-14 Democratic primary · 2018 · vs Joe Crowley

Won+11Horseflyout of sample +9

Joe Crowley chaired the House Democratic Caucus and the Queens Democratic Party. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a first-time candidate from the Bronx, challenged him from the left in a low-turnout June primary.

The odds“Many assumed that Crowley, the chair of the Queens Democratic Party, would easily win Queens.” — City & State New York

Result“On June 26, 2018, Ocasio-Cortez defeated Crowley 56.75%–43.25%” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2018 cycle (FEC): Joe Crowley $5.1M · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez $1.8M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Ground game +1
“Then we knocked on their doors, we sent them mail, we knocked on their doors again, we called them.”City & State New York
New or unusual voters +1
“She did a very good job of organizing and in generating a turnout spike among younger voters”City & State New York
One sharp contrast 0
“Her campaign platform called for abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement”City & State New York
Organized backing 0
“her victory was due to the perfect storm of ceaseless canvassing, endorsements and media attention”City & State New York
Favorite seen as absent +2
“a white man who some believed was disengaged with the district”City & State New York
The mood of the year +1
“a “change election.””City & State New York
A late event or luck +2
“There was an element of luck here, right?”City & State New York
Rallies and attention +1
“Ocasio-Cortez built a large following on social media”City & State New York
Outspent, and won anyway +3
FEC candidate summaries for the 2018 cycle: Joe Crowley spent $5.1M, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent $1.8M.

Ayanna Pressley

MA-7 Democratic primary · 2018 · vs Mike Capuano

Won+7Horseflyout of sample +6

Mike Capuano, a ten-term congressman and former mayor of Somerville with a progressive voting record, faced Boston city councilor Ayanna Pressley in the Democratic primary for the state's only majority-minority district.

The odds“A WBUR poll in early August found Capuano, a former Somerville mayor, leading by 13 points.” — WBUR

Result“Pressley had 58.4 percent, or 50,917 votes, to Capuano's 41.6 percent, or 36,234 votes.” — NBC News

Campaign spending, whole 2018 cycle (FEC): Mike Capuano $2.7M · Ayanna Pressley $1.4M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Ground game +1
“ran a grassroots campaign that targeted younger voters and voters of color”WBUR
New or unusual voters +1
“She appears to have done it by turning out young people and people of color, neither of whom typically vote in party primaries.”NBC News
Polls favored the other side 0
“A WBUR poll in early August found Capuano, a former Somerville mayor, leading by 13 points.”WBUR
One sharp contrast 0
“casting herself as a movement-building candidate”WBUR
Biography +1
“The daughter of a single mother and a father who was in and out of prison”WBUR
Organized backing 0
“notably received endorsements from both the Boston Globe and Boston Herald editorial boards”WBUR
The mood of the year +1
“Capuano acknowledged that voters had turned their backs on the Democratic establishment that had backed him”WBUR
Outspent, and won anyway +3
“He was buoyed by an advantage in campaign funds and a number of endorsements”WBUR

Jamaal Bowman

NY-16 Democratic primary · 2020 · vs Eliot Engel

Won+11Horseflyout of sample +9

Eliot Engel had served since 1989 and chaired the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Jamaal Bowman, a middle-school principal and first-time candidate recruited by Justice Democrats, challenged him in a primary held during the pandemic and the protests after George Floyd's killing.

The odds“Engel, who hasn’t faced a serious challenger in years” — CNN

Result“He defeated 16-term incumbent Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary and was first elected to Congress that November.” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Eliot Engel $3.4M · Jamaal Bowman $2.8M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Favorite weakened +1
“If I didn't have a primary, I wouldn't care”CBS New York
Favorite seen as absent +2
“Engel had spent the worst of New York City’s coronavirus crisis at his home in Maryland”CNN
Ground game +1
“Our canvassing operations and our focus was to knock on doors”CNN
New or unusual voters +1
“It was about engaging with the people who, quite frankly, felt ignored by him for 31 years.”CNN
Organized backing 0
“Bowman, who like Ocasio-Cortez was recruited to run by Justice Democrats”CNN
One sharp contrast 0
“had lost touch with his economically and racially diverse district”CBS New York
A late event or luck +2
“after protests over Floyd's death in Minnesota gave way to two nights of looting, Engel had a bad gaffe”CBS New York
The mood of the year +1
“Bowman’s victory is an extraordinary rebuke to the Democratic Party establishment”CNN
Outspent, and won anyway +3
FEC candidate summaries for the 2020 cycle: Eliot Engel spent $3.4M, Jamaal Bowman spent $2.8M.

Cori Bush

MO-1 Democratic primary · 2020 · vs Lacy Clay

Won+5Horseflyout of sample +3

Lacy Clay had held the St. Louis seat for twenty years, succeeding his father, who held it for thirty-two. Cori Bush, a nurse, pastor and Ferguson protest leader, had lost to him by 20 points in 2018 and ran again.

The odds“Bush was among the original Justice Democrat recruits in 2018, but lost her first challenge by 20 points.” — The Intercept

Result“winning 49%-46%” — CBS News

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Lacy Clay $1.0M · Cori Bush $1.3M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Organized backing 0
“again with the backing of Justice Democrats”The Intercept
A late event or luck +2
“protests over the death of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis and outrage over racial injustice finally pushed her over the edge”CBS News
Biography +1
“a onetime homeless woman who led protests following a white police officer's fatal shooting of a Black 18-year-old in Ferguson”CBS News
Attacked by the favorite 0
“launching a full-scale negative campaign to try to take her down”The Intercept
Favorite weakened +1
“he was hammered at home by an outside anti-monopoly group for his work with the financial industry”The Intercept
One sharp contrast 0
“She ran on defund the police, the Green New Deal, and Medicare for All”The Intercept
Rallies and attention +1
“the result of her higher name recognition from her role in the documentary”The Intercept

Against the easy story“Clay, however, is not old (he just turned 64, a decade younger than Engel), white, or lazy.” (The Intercept)

Lauren Boebert

CO-3 Republican primary · 2020 · vs Scott Tipton

Won+2Horseflyout of sample +1

Scott Tipton, a five-term congressman, had President Trump's endorsement. Lauren Boebert, a restaurant owner and first-time candidate, challenged him from the right.

The odds“Scott is working hard for Colorado and has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” — The Colorado Sun

Result“Lauren Boebert defeated Scott Tipton by a 54.6% to 45.4% margin” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Scott Tipton $933K · Lauren Boebert $2.6M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Favorite seen as absent +2
“Tipton also didn’t attend a forum for candidates in the district”The Colorado Sun
Attacked by the favorite 0
“He sent out a mailer calling Boebert “Lying Lauren” and defending his record”The Colorado Sun
One sharp contrast 0
“Boebert slammed him as failing to fight for his constituents”The Colorado Sun

Jamie McLeod-Skinner

OR-5 Democratic primary · 2022 · vs Kurt Schrader

Won+5Horseflyout of sample +5

Kurt Schrader, a seven-term moderate, had President Biden's first endorsement of the cycle. Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an attorney from central Oregon, challenged him in a redrawn district where local Democratic parties had turned against him.

The odds“Schrader significantly outraised and outspent McLeod-Skinner.” — Oregon Capital Chronicle

Result“McLeod-Skinner received almost 57% of the votes counted in the 5th Congressional District” — Oregon Capital Chronicle

Campaign spending, whole 2022 cycle (FEC): Kurt Schrader $5.2M · Jamie McLeod-Skinner $3.6M · a primary winner's figure includes the general election

Organized backing 0
“fierce backlash from local party leaders and grassroots gro”CNN
Favorite weakened +1
“Schrader’s voting record and efforts with a small group of House moderates to complicate the passage of Biden’s Build Back Better package”CNN
Ground game +1
“her willingness to more aggressively engage with rural voters”CNN
One sharp contrast 0
“He helped to create the situation that Democrats are in now”CNN
Attacked by the favorite 0
“the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent the primary season campaigning for Schrader and attacking McLeod-Skinner”Oregon Capital Chronicle
Outspent, and won anyway +3
“He collected nearly $2.3 million since January 2021 and spent almost $3.5 million, including reserves from previous campaign cycles. McLeod-Skinner raised a more modest $693,000 and spent $579,000.”Oregon Capital Chronicle

General-election upsets

Candidates who won while trailing in the polls or the forecasts, or in territory that votes the other way. Open any trend to see the quote and the source behind it.

Larry Hogan

MD Republican general · 2014 · vs Anthony Brown

Won+9Horseflyout of sample +7

Anthony Brown, the sitting lieutenant governor under Martin O'Malley, was the Democratic nominee in one of the most Democratic states. Larry Hogan, a real-estate businessman who had never held elected office, ran on rolling back tax increases.

Our panelFinal poll average D +2.8. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 6%, and did not flag it.

Result“Hogan won by more than 4 percentage points.” — Capital News Service

One sharp contrast 0
“Hogan’s tax-cutting, pro-business message hit a nerve”Capital News Service
The mood of the year +1
“It was a combination of a bad campaign and a bad environment that pretty much did Anthony Brown in.”Capital News Service
Favorite seen as absent +2
“Brown appeared less accessible to media and voters; for example, he did not take questions after several debates”Capital News Service
Biography +1
“Hogan told voters he was not a politician, and characterized himself as a Maryland businessman”Capital News Service
Rallies and attention +1
“Travelling around the state in a large Hogan/Rutherford campaign bus”Capital News Service
Favorite weakened +1
“concerned about O’Malley-era tax hikes”Capital News Service
Outspent, and won anyway +3
“Despite a fundraising advantage through the general election, including direct donations of about $4 million to the campaign”Capital News Service

Ron Johnson

WI Republican general · 2016 · vs Russ Feingold

Won+6Horseflyout of sample +5

A rematch: Ron Johnson had unseated Russ Feingold in 2010, and Feingold ran to take the seat back in a presidential year.

Our panelFinal poll average D +2.6. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 13%, and flagged the race.

Campaign spending, whole 2016 cycle (FEC): Russ Feingold $24.8M · Ron Johnson $18.2M

Polls favored the other side 0
“Feingold consistently led in the polls throughout the race”HuffPost
A late event or luck +2
“In the race’s final weeks, money poured into the state as polls tightened.”CNN
The mood of the year +1
“In another reflection of Republicans’ stronger-than-expected night”CNN
Outspent, and won anyway +3
FEC candidate summaries for the 2016 cycle: Russ Feingold spent $24.8M, Ron Johnson spent $18.2M.

Doug Jones

AL Democratic general · 2017 · vs Roy Moore

Won+6Horseflyout of sample +4

A special election for the seat Jeff Sessions left to become attorney general, in a state President Trump had won by 28 points. The Republican nominee, former state chief justice Roy Moore, faced allegations in November of sexual misconduct with teenagers, which his campaign denied. Doug Jones was a former US attorney.

Our panelFinal poll average R +2.8. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 7%, and did not flag it.

Result“Doug Jones on Tuesday became the first Democrat in a generation to win a Senate seat in Alabama” — CNN

Campaign spending, whole 2018 cycle (FEC): Roy Moore $5.1M · Doug Jones $23.6M

Favorite weakened +1
“The Moore campaign’s strategy for confronting the allegations was simple: Deflect and deny”CNN
New or unusual voters +1
“Jones’ victory was fueled by huge turnout – and near-unanimous support – from black voters.”CNN
Crossover appeal 0
“Jones won 31 percent of whites, double Barack Obama’s share in 2012”ABC News
Organized backing 0
“civil rights icon and Georgia Rep. John Lewis, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and other black leaders hitting the trail”CNN
Rallies and attention +1
“said at Jones’ election eve rally in Birmingham”CNN
Biography +1
“best known for prosecuting KKK members decades later for the killing of four young African-American girls in a 1963 Birmingham church bombing”NPR
A late event or luck +2
“was upended in November as multiple women came forward”NPR
One sharp contrast 0
“Jones cast the election as an opportunity for Alabama voters to reject the embarrassment he said Moore was sure to bring the state.”CNN

Susan Collins

ME Republican general · 2020 · vs Sara Gideon

Won+5Horseflyout of sample +4

Susan Collins, a four-term incumbent, trailed Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon in the polls through most of 2020, in the most expensive race in the state's history.

Our panelFinal poll average D +3.8. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 12%, and did not flag it.

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Sara Gideon $64.1M · Susan Collins $29.2M

Crossover appeal 0
“many Mainers split their ticket, ultimately voting for Biden and Collins”Slate
Biography +1
“the independent figure born and bred in Maine”Slate
Attacked by the favorite 0
“which became increasingly negative as the season dragged forward”Slate
Favorite weakened +1
“Of the $69,577,474 raised, a total of 60 percent ($41,846,965) came from out-of-state donors.”Slate
Outspent, and won anyway +3
FEC candidate summaries for the 2020 cycle: Sara Gideon spent $64.1M, Susan Collins spent $29.2M.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

WA-3 Democratic general · 2022 · vs Joe Kent

Won+2Horseflyout of sample +1

Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler voted to impeach President Trump and lost the top-two primary to Trump-endorsed Joe Kent. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who co-owns an auto-repair shop, was the only serious Democrat in a seat considered safely Republican.

The odds“FiveThirtyEight gave Kent a 98% chance of winning, but there had been little polling in the race.” — The Seattle Times

Result“defeated Donald Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Kent on Saturday in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, with roughly 50.5% of the vote” — The Seattle Times

Campaign spending, whole 2022 cycle (FEC): Joe Kent $3.8M · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez $3.9M

Crossover appeal 0
“a coalition that included Republicans and independents who favored her focus on local issues and rebuilding the rural economy”The Seattle Times
Biography +1
“co-own a Portland auto-repair shop with eight employees”The Seattle Times
Polls favored the other side 0
“FiveThirtyEight gave Kent a 98% chance of winning, but there had been little polling in the race.”The Seattle Times
Favorite weakened +1
“Herrera Beutler never endorsed either candidate”The Seattle Times
One sharp contrast 0
“We are tired of politicking and we are tired of extremists”The Seattle Times

Katie Hobbs

AZ Democratic general · 2022 · vs Kari Lake

Won+1Horseflyout of sample +1

An open governor's race between Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and former television anchor Kari Lake, a Trump ally who made claims of fraud in the 2020 election central to her campaign.

Our panelFinal poll average R +3.1. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 17%, and flagged the race.

One sharp contrast 0
“Hobbs said a vote for her was a vote for “sanity versus chaos,””Cronkite News
Favorite weakened +1
“While Lake was focused on election fraud”Cronkite News

Long shots who lost

The comparison group: serious challengers who did many of the same things and lost, and what the favorite did to hold on. Open any trend to see the quote and the source behind it.

Chris McDaniel

MS Republican primary · 2014 · vs Thad Cochran

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +3

State senator Chris McDaniel, backed by Tea Party groups, narrowly led six-term Senator Thad Cochran in the first round of the Republican primary. Cochran won the runoff.

The odds“Despite trailing in most of the polls, Cochran won with 51% of the vote to McDaniel's 49%.” — Wikipedia

Result“Cochran defeated McDaniel in the runoff, 51% to 49%.” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2014 cycle (FEC): Thad Cochran $7.6M · Chris McDaniel $3.3M

Organized backing 0
“McDaniel was endorsed by politicians including Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum and organizations including Citizens United, Club for Growth, FreedomWorks”Wikipedia
The mood of the year +1
“which had appeared poised to knock out a longtime Senate Republican incumbent for the third election cycle in a row”The Christian Science Monitor
One sharp contrast 0
“McDaniel's campaign attacked Cochran for being "an out-of-touch, big-spending Washington insider"”Wikipedia

What the favorite did“doubled down on voter outreach to reliable Republican voters” (The Christian Science Monitor) “pro-Cochran forces also reached out to black voters throughout Mississippi” (The Christian Science Monitor)

Tim Canova

FL-23 Democratic primary · 2016 · vs Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +2

Law professor Tim Canova, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, challenged sitting DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz shortly after leaked emails forced her resignation from the DNC for working to undermine Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign.

Result“The incumbent won 57 percent of the vote to Canova's 43 percent with 56 percent of precincts reporting” — Roll Call

Favorite weakened +1
“Hacked emails from the committee showed a few DNC staffers discrediting Sanders' presidential campaign”Roll Call
Organized backing 0
“Sanders backed Canova in the primary and sent fundraising emails on his behalf”Roll Call
One sharp contrast 0
“he attacked her for ‘tipping the scales of democracy’”Roll Call

Beto O'Rourke

TX Democratic general · 2018 · vs Ted Cruz

Lost+3Horseflyout of sample +5

El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke challenged Senator Ted Cruz, visiting every county, taking no PAC money and setting fundraising records.

Our panelFinal poll average R +5.1. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 7%, and did not flag it.

Result“U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke” — The Texas Tribune

Campaign spending, whole 2018 cycle (FEC): Ted Cruz $39.3M · Beto O'Rourke $80.5M

Ground game +1
“all 254 counties, did you hear?”The Texas Tribune
Rallies and attention +1
“O’Rourke was steadily building big crowds.”The Texas Tribune
Polls favored the other side 0
“Cruz was ahead in virtually all the surveys”The Texas Tribune
New or unusual voters +1
“And, in the last couple of weeks, voter turnout.”The Texas Tribune
One sharp contrast 0
“the attraction of being not-Ted-Cruz at a time where there was an ample audience for that”The Texas Tribune

Stacey Abrams

GA Democratic general · 2018 · vs Brian Kemp

Lost+3Horseflyout of sample +3

Stacey Abrams, the former state House minority leader, sought to become the first Black woman governor in US history. Brian Kemp, the sitting Secretary of State, oversaw the election he was running in.

Our panelFinal poll average R +1.6. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 23%, and did not flag it.

Result“Republican Brian Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams with 1,978,408 votes (50.22%) to Abrams' 1,923,685 votes (48.83%)” — Wikipedia

Favorite weakened +1
“Kemp announced he was resigning his post as secretary of state...after a lawsuit was filed calling it a conflict of interest for Kemp to oversee the vote count in a race he's involved in”NPR
New or unusual voters +1
“An estimated 55% of eligible voters exercised their right to vote, about 21 points higher than the state's 1982-2014 midterm average”PolitiFact
Rallies and attention +1
“Winfrey took the stage in Marietta, Ga., to back Abrams as the candidate who ‘cares about the things that matter’”Fox News

Against the easy story“She ran in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide races for decades while calling for more gun control, expanding health care and decriminalizing certain drug offenses” (PolitiFact)

Andrew Gillum

FL Democratic general · 2018 · vs Ron DeSantis

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +2

Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum won an upset primary over better-funded, more moderate rivals to become the Democratic nominee, seeking to become Florida's first Black governor against Trump-endorsed Ron DeSantis.

Our panelFinal poll average D +2.9. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 20%, and did not flag it.

Result“DeSantis won with 49.59% of the vote (4,076,186 votes) versus Gillum's 49.19% (4,043,723 votes), a margin of 0.4%, the closest gubernatorial election in Florida history” — Wikipedia

Favorite weakened +1
“DeSantis said in a Fox News [interview] that Gillum would 'monkey this up' if elected, which critics immediately denounced as a racist dog whistle”NBC News
Organized backing 0
“Major Democratic donors like Tom Steyer backed his campaign early on, hoping to prove that a candidate with populist progressive views could win by boosting turnout among young and nonwhite voters”NBC News
One sharp contrast 0
“Gillum, who backed single-payer health care and impeaching Trump, won his primary in an upset over a more conventional Democrat”NBC News

Abdul El-Sayed

MI Democratic primary · 2018 · vs Gretchen Whitmer

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +3

Abdul El-Sayed, Detroit's former health director, ran as a Bernie Sanders-style progressive for the Democratic nomination for Michigan governor against establishment favorite Gretchen Whitmer.

Result“With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Whitmer had received 52.1 percent of the vote to Abdul El-Sayed's 30.3 percent” — The Intercept

One sharp contrast 0
“$15 minimum wage; tuition-free college for Michiganders with family income under $150,000; aggressive criminal justice reform; and the most detailed state-level single-payer health care plan ever”The Intercept
Organized backing 0
“Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., endorsed El-Sayed, leveraging his considerable popularity in the state to El-Sayed's benefit”The Intercept
Ground game +1
“the campaign has made approximately 400,000 phone calls to Michigan voters and has knocked on 130,000 doors”The Intercept
Polls favored the other side 0
“Polls placed El-Sayed last among the three candidates competing in the Democratic primary”The Intercept

Marie Newman

IL-3 Democratic primary · 2018 · vs Dan Lipinski

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +3

Marie Newman's first challenge to anti-abortion-rights incumbent Dan Lipinski, two years before she beat him in a 2020 rematch (a separate, later race, not itself in this dataset).

Result“Newman came just under 2,200 votes short of victory — a 2.2 percent margin” — The Daily Northwestern

Campaign spending, whole 2018 cycle (FEC): Dan Lipinski $2.4M · Marie Newman $1.5M

One sharp contrast 0
“would describe herself as a ‘real Democrat,’ implying that Lipinski's beliefs put him at odds with the party's central message”The Daily Northwestern
The mood of the year +1
“she was seeking to join a new wave of progressive first-time woman representatives like U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez...and Ayanna Pressley”The Daily Northwestern
Organized backing 0
“Sanders political team called his endorsement ‘game changing’”Chicago Sun-Times

Against the easy story“she didn't have enough resources to turn the tide” (The Daily Northwestern)

Joe Kennedy III

MA Democratic primary · 2020 · vs Ed Markey

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +1

Congressman Joe Kennedy III challenged Senator Ed Markey. Early polling favored the challenger; the incumbent won.

The odds“before Kennedy even entered the race, polling found him to be the favorite” — NPR

Result“Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Ed Markey $13.0M · Joe Kennedy III $15.6M

Biography +1
“a member of the state's legendary political dynasty”NPR
Attacked by the favorite 0
“Markey began to explicitly criticize the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege”Wikipedia

What the favorite did“Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself” (Wikipedia) “Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez” (Wikipedia)

Against the easy story“journalists observed his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale” (Wikipedia)

Jaime Harrison

SC Democratic general · 2020 · vs Lindsey Graham

Lost+2Horseflyout of sample +3

Former state Democratic chair Jaime Harrison challenged Senator Lindsey Graham and set a quarterly fundraising record for a Senate candidate.

Our panelFinal poll average R +1.8. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 14%, and did not flag it.

Result“Graham defeated Harrison by 54.4% to 44.2%” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Lindsey Graham $91.3M · Jaime Harrison $132.4M

Attacked by the favorite 0
“Graham ran ads attempting to brand Harrison as a diehard liberal while connecting him with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.”Wikipedia
Favorite weakened +1
“In the Trump era, he's become a national villain for Democrats, which has driven attention—and money—to his opponent.”TIME
One sharp contrast 0
“The urgency to get Supreme Court justices through, or tee time with the President, or going on Fox News—all those things are much higher on the priority level for Lindsey Graham than addressing the issues people are dealing with”TIME
Biography +1
“He grew up eating cereal with water because his family couldn't afford milk.”TIME

Amy McGrath

KY Democratic general · 2020 · vs Mitch McConnell

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +2

Former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath challenged Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and raised far more than he did.

Our panelFinal poll average R +8.8. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 3%, and did not flag it.

Result“Despite being outraised by tens of millions of dollars by McGrath, McConnell defeated McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points.” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2020 cycle (FEC): Mitch McConnell $64.9M · Amy McGrath $92.2M

Attacked by the favorite 0
“accused Senator Mitch McConnell of using "doctored audio" in a new set of attack ads to mislead voters about her policy positions in their heated 2020 Senate race”Newsweek
Biography +1
“I took an oath as a Marine fighter pilot and a national security advisor to always tell the truth.”Newsweek
Crossover appeal 0
“I've been a registered independent, spent 20 years in the Marine Corps and married a Republican.”Newsweek

Jessica Cisneros

TX-28 Democratic primary · 2022 · vs Henry Cuellar

Lost+3Horseflyout of sample +5

A runoff rematch between Henry Cuellar, in the House since 2005 and one of its most conservative Democrats, and immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros, who had come within four points of him in 2020.

Result“defeating progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros by 289 votes overall” — The Texas Tribune

Campaign spending, whole 2022 cycle (FEC): Henry Cuellar $6.2M · Jessica Cisneros $6.5M

Favorite weakened +1
“the raids provided Cisneros with attack ad fodder”NPR
A late event or luck +2
“Politico published a leaked draft opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court indicating a majority of justices could be willing to overturn Roe v. Wade”The Texas Tribune
Organized backing 0
“a challenger backed by progressive stalwarts, including Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez”NPR
One sharp contrast 0
“Cisneros pushed to keep abortion rights front and center in the campaign”NPR
Attacked by the favorite 0
“painted Cisneros as a far-left candidate who wouldn't be effective in Congress”NPR

What the favorite did“He touted his deep ties to the district and ability to get things done.” (NPR)

Mandela Barnes

WI Democratic general · 2022 · vs Ron Johnson

Lost+1Horseflyout of sample +3

Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes challenged two-term Senator Ron Johnson, who had been increasingly defined by controversial statements on abortion, COVID treatments, and his ties to the January 6 riot and fake elector plot.

Our panelFinal poll average R +3.6. Hypercane put the chance that the polls had named the wrong winner at 14%, and did not flag it.

Result“Ron Johnson (Republican) won 1,337,185 votes (50.41%) to Mandela Barnes' 1,310,467 votes (49.41%), a margin of about one point” — Wikipedia

Campaign spending, whole 2022 cycle (FEC): Ron Johnson $34.7M · Mandela Barnes $41.8M

Favorite weakened +1
“increasingly defined by headlines over his statements on issues such as abortion, his perpetuation of dubious and unproven Covid treatments, and his ties to the Jan. 6 riot and fake elector plot”NBC News
Polls favored the other side 0
“Johnson had built a small lead in most polls over Barnes — though within the margin of error”NBC News
One sharp contrast 0
“Barnes made an early bet to run as a progressive and largely did not move to the center. His campaign focused heavily on promises to protect abortion rights and Social Security benefits.”NBC News
Attacked by the favorite 0
“unleashing a barrage of negative ads that highlighted rising crime rates and singling out things Barnes had said about criminal justice reform”NBC News

Dan Osborn

NE Independent general · 2024 · vs Deb Fischer

Lost+3Horseflyout of sample +6

Dan Osborn, a mechanic and union leader running as an independent with no Democrat on the ballot, challenged two-term Republican Senator Deb Fischer.

Result“Deb Fischer 53.3%, Dan Osborn 46.7% of votes for candidates” — Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives

Campaign spending, whole 2024 cycle (FEC): Deb Fischer $7.9M · Dan Osborn $14.8M

Crossover appeal 0
“Osborn’s platform straddles both camps.”Rolling Stone
Favorite seen as absent +2
“Fischer led a lackluster campaign and unimpressive fundraising”NPR
Biography +1
“highlighted his background as a mechanic and labor leader”NPR
Attacked by the favorite 0
“Fischer also spent the final stretch arguing that Osborn is a “Democrat in disguise,””NBC News
One sharp contrast 0
“who cast her as a creature of Washington”NBC News

Sources

News reports and analyses as fetched on 2026-09-15 (original 20 cases); 2026-09-22 (comparison group expanded to 13, and the two thinnest comparison cases, harrison-2020 and mcgrath-2020, re-researched with more sources), with Wikipedia used for certified results where a news source did not give them. Spending is from FEC candidate summaries. Poll averages and Hypercane scores are the project's own, from Stormfront.

Built 2026-09-22 from data/upsets/cases.json by src/upsets.py. Phase 1 of the upsets research.